Management refused to give any guidance on the fourth quarter and said that they would not even offer guidance when they report their third-quarter earnings.
How do you get traffic in there? What's the plan?
We think that they want to wait until after November to get a better feel. We believe that the stock's recent run is overdone due to this lack of visibility.
Our sense is that the holiday season has not been particularly good so far, that this past weekend's sales were less than spectacular and a New York City transit strike was basically the last thing the retail sector needed.
We are upgrading our opinion on American Eagle to Neutral Weight from Underweight and raising our price target to $25. Although we still question the sustainability of American Eagle's high operating margin and productivity levels, we see risk to the upside in the story in the near term from potentially improving spring product and want to step to the sidelines.