We expect weak household consumption, business investment and inventory run down to result in a negative headline number.
It's a whopper. It's 8 percent (of gross domestic product) on my numbers and definitely bigger than what I had expected.
Household confidence is very weak, suggesting household spending is vulnerable. We expect spreading weakness in retail spending as the year progresses.
The economy will slow more quickly than the Reserve Bank assumes.
It would take a sharp slowdown in both house sales and retail sales for the RBNZ to show some mercy.