If the Bank of Japan can confirm one more month of CPI gains, its policy conditions on prices will be satisfied, and the only remaining issue will be its overall judgment of the economy's strength.
Companies are regaining pricing power, and they are beginning to pass manufacturing and labor costs to retail prices. Japan's economy has picked up momentum since early last year, and the gap between supply and demand has narrowed.
A revival in their investment plans backs up the case that deflation is ending. Non- manufacturers have no choice but to depend on domestic sales and until now they have been reluctant to increase investment because of concern about deflation.
The Bank of Japan probably won't hold rates at zero for very long after excess reserves are absorbed.
The recovery in employment and incomes should continue bolstering consumption ahead. And the recent machinery orders data suggests capital spending will maintain an uptrend into the fourth quarter onwards.
The numbers are strong. Both internal and external demand remain solid.
Japanese companies are regaining pricing power by gradually reflecting rising manufacturing and labor costs in their product prices. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as August.
There is a 60 percent chance for a policy change this month and 40 percent for action in April. In any case, a rate increase won't be an option for the time being, and zero rates will continue.
The recovery in employment and incomes should continue bolstering consumption ahead.
Copyright © 2024 Electric Goat Media. All Rights Reserved.