I don't think home values will crash -- they will rust, not bust. Demographics have underpinned demand, courtesy of a wave of immigration in the past 16 years that reduced supply, and you don't see the speculative overhang that could contribute to a bust in home values.

275

Both sides seem to be pretty well entrenched in their positions, which would mean the economic effects could be rather appreciable.

275

The fourth quarter is going to be very sluggish, indeed. We'll see some improvement in the first quarter, but it's a slow grind.

174

If we are right that both the pace of economic activity and corporate earnings are still fraught with near-term, downside risk, equity values and risk spreads will carry a recession uncertainty premium for some time -- a premium that the Fed will still want to counter.

167

There's still quite a bit of slack in the economy, and you can't push through prices until you eliminate that slack.

163

Oil shocks are a tax on growth, and this is no exception. None of us know how long this supply shock is going to last.

162

The U.S. stock market is pricing in a hard landing, an acceleration of inflation and a Fed that may or may not come to the rescue. Part of that message is emanating from the bond market and part of it is coming from some thick smoke signals that the banks are sending.

154

Energy prices will have to fall substantially and growth will have to improve to erase the feeling that the growth/inflation mix will be unpleasant.

143

They will still go. Absolutely. Definitely. There's no question about it. They now have a little latitude to space the timing of the increases, but there's no question they will move.

104