If the economy recovers quickly, the 10-year rate could be 5.2 percent even earlier than what they're projecting, and it could be 6 percent in the coming years.
New Orleans is an economic disaster. This tragedy is so unprecedented people could be out of work for three, six, nine months or longer.
If consumer confidence holds steady, and consumers spend the money from tax cuts, and once business see a clear sign of a rebound in sales, then around September or October, they're going to budget and change their targets for capital spending. Then, it takes a couple of months to hire people and get set up.
When the economy is running below potential, I don't mind deficits at all.
From that perspective, Miller looks like a good chairman. But he was basically fired.
Right now, the worms are just an irritant, but there are a lot of weird things happening -- worms, bomb blasts [in Baghdad and Jerusalem] -- that are not good for the morale of executives. If that takes a hit, the much-vaunted recovery in business investment might get delayed.
People are looking towards their remarks about how the economy is doing, and I think they will be more specific on that. The Fed will probably tailor its remarks to build the expectation that it will be a while before they raise rates.
It will depend more on the phase of the business cycle and the credibility of the institution, namely the central bank, and the person.
You can't convince a CEO there won't be another war, especially when we've had two in the past two years. It's not a conducive environment for investment.
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