The way it hurts is when housing prices peak and then we no longer have this wealth effect that has been driving consumer spending. And so far, housing prices are growing at double-digit rates. But it's going to happen sometime, and we think it's going to happen probably starting in the second quarter.

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They're all generally telling the same story. Activity is still fairly strong but it's declining. They're going to be a drag on gross domestic product.

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While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame.

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It isn't very much but it's the first negative in 10 years. That's the big difference.

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With interest rates continuing to rise, all signs point to a further weakening in sales just down the road.

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