"Nik Nanos" is a Canada/Canadian public opinion pollster and an expert on image research and crisis communications management.

More Nik Nanos on Wikipedia.

Last night, the numbers for the Liberals were quite weak.

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The announcement of the criminal investigation . . . made what was a relatively comfortable (Liberal) lead into a neck and neck race.

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It would require Stephen Harper or someone very close to Stephen Harper to make a monumental blunder to turn those numbers around. This is Stephen Harper's election to lose.

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So, it's not surprising that the Liberals are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at them. The Liberals still haven't found anything that will stick to Harper. The bogeyman argument, right now, doesn't have traction.

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(The attack ads) are starting to have a little bit of an effect on peoples' impression of Stephen Harper's vision but they haven't transformed into changing the momentum of the campaign.

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I think the Liberals are doing everything they can to do turn it around, but the reality is that we're at the point right now where only Stephen Harper can lose this election. Only some major mistake by Harper or someone close to him can derail the Conservative juggernaut.

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They have to be careful also that this isn't just another white elephant.

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People are disappointed with the Liberals, disappointed with Paul Martin, so they have turned their attention to Stephen Harper. Harper hasn't done anything to validate what the Liberals would like in regards to views that might not jive with average Canadians.

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The numbers that are driving male support have to do costs and the future and being ready for the future while women are probably more likely to be concerned about the potential implications and risks of nuclear energy.

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