It's been a long bull run with yields lower, and we're just seeing a few chinks taken out of the bond market's armor.
The bottom line is it's difficult for a Treasury market to rally when the Fed has indicated they are not done tightening.
I would suspect we'll go out with a whimper.
I think the big question on traders' minds now is: is this the beginning of the end? Is this the end of this long run-up?
The traders are for the most part are out. So we're just biding out time.
We're pricing in a 90 percent chance that the Fed will cut (by half a percentage point).
That's going to be our next hurdle.
There is just tremendous demand both for flight-to-quality reasons and because of these credit spreads.
It wasn't on the fly, screaming demand. The overriding factor is what the global economic situation is -- and it is tenuous at best.
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