You can see the distress in the market. It's in as much pain as it ever has been.

Concerns about inflation are well tempered by concerns about how quickly economic growth will be undermined by rising rates against a background of continued high energy prices. When the evidence of that appears in the numbers, the bond market's low long-end yields will look justified.

Already the Federal Reserve is indicating an increased degree of inflationary concern and this would only be exacerbated by further depreciation [of the dollar]. That raises the potential for rates in 2005 to be higher than might otherwise be considered optimal.