The data nonetheless shows the U.S. manufacturing sector is in recession and that the ISM could fall further if the war is prolonged beyond April.

197

The Fed will probably feel the data is distorted by the Iraq war and that there's enough underlying strength in the U.S. economy for it to pickup after the war.

185

The U.S. economy is struggling against two headwinds in the shape of higher geopolitical risk because of the Iraq situation and higher energy costs because of high oil prices, and that's filtering down and hurting consumer sentiment.

150

Clearly the Iran situation is the key focus at the moment, our view is that eventually it will settle down, but it's expected to rumble on for a while and so maybe at the margins slightly supportive of the safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc.

142

The markets are looking at today's GDP numbers in the context of the fact that the fourth quarter is looking like it will deliver just one percent growth.

111