Trade is a drag (on growth) and that tends to hit manufacturing harder than the rest of the economy.
Clearly they think the basis for a recovery is still quite fragile. They're probably still thinking in terms of one more step of easing. [Wednesday's] numbers won't greatly change the calculus.
This is a confirmation that weather probably was a factor holding up activity [in November], but underneath the surface, the setback in December isn't even what it looks like. What I'm calling attention to specifically is the fact that single-family starts actually rose about 3.6 percent, while all the setback was in multi-family units.
It would be minimal.
Is the market concerned about it? Yes. Is it a significant concern? I doubt it.
The really surprising thing is the lack of inflation given this kind of growth.
In our view, the financial markets are much too complacent about what a decision to keep tightening means at this juncture.
If under these circumstances the F.O.M.C. is prepared to keep going, then this means that the committee is more worried about the longer-term risk of higher inflation than the shorter-term risk of a collapse in growth.
We had expected an upward revision in the second-quarter G.D.P. estimate on the basis of other recently released data, ... but trade kind of goes in the opposite direction.
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