Profit news continues to be good, and we are seeing some relief from the profit taking of the last few weeks. But there is an ongoing tug-of-war between 'we've come too far too fast,' and 'the economic recovery is strong' and you're seeing that played out on a day-to-day basis.
There's no real compelling reason for stocks to be up. But you've got little new news and there's an upward bias, so we're up today after a few days of selling.
The forecasts for the second-half of the year for the most part seem to support a recovery, but to some extent, that's already priced into the market, so you're not seeing that much stock reaction. There's not a lot of conviction and some people will take profits. But I think there will continue to be a moderately upwards bias for the remainder of the year.
Clearly you're seeing conflicting signs about the economy and the market reacting to that.
Earnings have been good, but what you're starting to see is a return to the attitude about earnings that we saw in the late 1990's, where you're seeing more talk about whisper numbers, higher expectations, and a more punitive reaction to numbers that disappoint.
I think that there is an upward bias. The market for the first time in a long while is wanting to go up.
What companies report now is less influential than what they say about future quarters.
On any given day, the market is taking its cue from forecasts and results. Juniper was negative, so that's spilling through the Nasdaq. I think, overall, though, the trend through the rest of the year and into early next year will be more positive.
I think if you look at volume it would seem to indicate there very likely may be a return of investors. People who are more opportunistic have seen the signs. But a lot of people are waiting for clarity.
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