The key variable is Chinese domestic politics. How do you demand anything in Chinese culture and not get it.
They are fluent Russian speakers. They have a perspective on Russia that the previous generation, Mao and even Deng Xiaoping, did not have. Mao and Deng were much more suspicious of Russia. This generation is suspicious of the West.
I do not think that the Chinese Communist Party is going to implode and collapse like it did in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. This Communist Party is going to fight to stay in power, and it will use the military to stay there.
If you study the period of time that Jiang has been in power, he has assiduously and meticulously sought the support of several different constituencies within the party, army and state apparatus, and I think has rather successfully co-opted those constituencies and adopted their programs as his own.
They all come out of the party and technocratic backgrounds. Many are engineers.
The U.S. right now is bending over backwards to engage China on a wide variety of issues.
Economics, finance, foreign affairs, the environment - you name it, they're there.