The risk of having a major sell off when the Fed starts tightening is relatively low.
This is a pretty good number, still consistent with the view that the economy continues to improve slowly but surely.
I think the economy will be surprisingly strong in the first half. The real question is: What comes after that?
We now really have reached a level where it's cutting through fat and actually reaching bone in terms of what people can bear.
The markets are adjusting to the view that there's not much to expect from the Fed going forward and that puts even more focus on the other engine of the markets, which is earnings. There you have some signals that the worst might be over.
We're still reluctant to buy into these stocks, even if they fall considerably. They might have turned the corner in the broadest sense, but the balance sheets are very stretched.
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