The market wants Lula to win in the first round just to get this over with.
Even if he doesn't win, he could be a radical voice for the left.
To Mexico's credit, they don't allow the oil windfall to get in the hands of the Treasury too much so they haven't really grown dependent on it.
On the flip side, there should be more concern in Brazil.
Where the credit is really due is in the early part of Greenspan's tenure: being faced with the aftershocks of the Wall Street crash in 1987 and dealing with that quite well. He confronted some very serious potential crises and got us to a point where we avoided them and are better off than we might have been otherwise.
It is a perfect time for populism. It will be more and more difficult for Brazil to resist.
All of this is Monday morning quarterbacking. If you or I were in there we'd probably have done a much worse job. His great legacy was his pragmatism. He was cautious.
Because the economy is so strong, import growth is also very strong, and that import growth is eroding trade surpluses. Surpluses of more than a billion a month might be over.
In Mexico, there is too much risk priced in.
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