Fundamentals right now are bearish. Supplies are building really quickly. The trend is definitely to be lower, at least going into the second quarter.
The debate here needs to be about moving away from oil as a means of looking at energy security. There are a lot of new technologies that can be looked at for this.
The rally is based on the Nigeria attacks. It is quite a significant amount. The market was used to Nigerian outages, but these attacks appear to be gathering speed and are much more worrying.
The funds see economic growth is expected to continue and over the last two years, commodities have outperformed every other asset class.
Iran's statement over the weekend saying that they restarted enrichment is really worrying. We don't expect sanctions because nobody wants oil at US$100 (US$1 = RM3.74). For now it's only talk. The situation is probably going to loom for the rest of the year.
Market operators are aware that the gasoline market will be tight this summer because of the specification changes. The main concern a couple weeks ago was that supply was more than plentiful, but when you look at gasoline stockpiles, they don't reflect the gasoline that will actually be used in summer.
The market is well supplied. But the market has been buying in the dips. The focus is on geopolitics.
Even if demand goes up, the level of stocks remains very high, which weighs on prices.
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