An announcement by the government that deflation is ending will mean a lot for bond investors. It will make it hard to buy bonds as there is a growing expectation deflation is really ending.
The yen is more likely to fall than rise. The BOJ probably won't raise rates anytime soon, keeping the rate-differential story alive.
Investors are unwilling to buy bonds today. Everyone is cautious about good U.S. job data, staying alert for further gains in bond yields.
The euro will probably be the weakest among the three major currencies, given the economic fundamentals.
I hear many investors want to sell bonds now as prices are high. It is hard to buy bonds at around 10-year yields near 1.3 percent.
Bonds will likely stay weak. The economy is growing and the central bank plans to shift policy around April.
It is hard to buy bonds when the central bank is getting more evidence to support their case for raising interest rates. Bond yields will rise to correspond with an end of deflation.
Investors are reluctant to buy bonds before the price report and the BOJ meeting. I see a more than 50 percent chance for a policy shift next week.
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