The New Zealand dollar continues to be hampered by the recent swag of weak economic data. We suspect the currency will continue to come under pressure.

Plunging business confidence and easing consumption should suppress import growth. Should the economic slowdown be more pronounced than expected, the trade deficit may have benefited.

The news will be frowned on by the Reserve Bank, which has yet to see a sustained easing in the housing market.

With successive (interest) rate hikes in late 2005, inflation easing and the domestic economy in a slowdown phase, we believe the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold over the near-term.