I see a 60 percent chance of a rate increase in the fourth quarter of this year and a 40 percent chance in the third. Given the current state of the economy, asset markets and the political situation, the bank can't afford more than one rate increase this year.

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The BOJ policy shift marks a symbolic step toward the normalization of the Japanese economy. The central bank will eventually move to raise short-term rates from zero, and that's a necessary process for Japan to achieve sustainable economic growth.

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We will probably see strong fourth-quarter growth numbers, and there are no domestic factors that could derail the economy. The central bank will probably end quantitative easing in April.

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