I am skeptical that this time will be different.
At the corporate level, the big downturn in equity prices has smashed company pension funds, forcing companies to put more money back into their pension plans. Anything that helps to stop [the downturn in equities] could be helpful.
If we hadn't had a recession a year ago, and we were watching the fall in employment, a stalling manufacturing sector, falling bond yields and falling stock prices, many people would think we were entering a recession. There's an assumption that the recovery will continue and get stronger next year, when in fact it's possible the economy's tipping over again.
Unemployment at 6 percent means the Fed has just lost six full years of progress towards lower unemployment in just six quarters. With its preferred measure of core inflation at the lowest level since the 1960s, the Fed probably requires a run of monthly payroll gains of 150,000 to 200,000 before it will feel any real need to tighten.
The Republicans have control of the Senate, but the economy is still struggling. Maybe [Republican control] will lead to some tax cuts, but that's not going to happen in the near term. The U.S. economy needs all the help it can get, and soon.
There is a very gradual improvement, but the rate of improvement is painfully slow.
It's too early to say with great confidence that things are definitely getting worse, but if we get another month or two of payrolls declines, there won't be any shortage of people saying a double dip has started.
The [economic] data are what determine what the Fed will do today; they don't see last night's result as a sea change.
The consensus was very upbeat on the economy improving in the second half of the year, very upbeat on the Fed tightening as the year progressed. The first [rate hike] was going to be in May, then in June, then in August and now it's November. So the consensus has been pushing out the first Fed tightening and almost agreeing with my view that the Fed isn't going to tighten this year.
Copyright © 2024 Electric Goat Media. All Rights Reserved.