With the election well out of the way, the chancellor's forecasts have taken a step back towards reality.
On this basis, the doubling in the oil price since 2003 will have knocked something like three quarters of a percentage point off GDP growth during this year alone.
But a prudent chancellor would keep some money in the bank so that he could do something about it.
The Chancellor is blaming the UK economic slowdown on the recent spike in oil prices and the weakness of the European economy, but this is unrealistic.
We expect interest rates to remain at 4.5 percent until the end of the year, but another rate cut cannot be ruled out.
We are certainly not out of the woods yet. Growth is still well below par - just hitting the euro-zone average - and with consumer spending dropping and the pressure piling on exports to take up the slack, we could be in for a bumpy 2006.
The simple fact is that he'd already run out of money this time last year.
The Treasury can't have it both ways. They can't expect us to pay higher tax, fuel and utility bills while keeping the economy afloat by shopping in the high street.
Copyright © 2024 Electric Goat Media. All Rights Reserved.