We continue to expect sentiment to worsen until GM/Delphi/UAW reach a three- way deal, which we believe would also greatly facilitate a GMAC sale.
The GMT-900 version of the Chevy Tahoe is officially for sale now, but it is difficult to gauge how strong a start the vehicle is having. Nonetheless, early results will be highly scrutinized.
In any event, we continue to believe that a voluntary near-term bankruptcy for GM/GMAC is of very low probability. We continue to believe that the biggest risk arguably would be a UAW strike at Delphi...our sense currently is that a significant labor disruption at Delphi remains a remote likelihood.
Clearly, Greenbrier shares have had a great run year-to-date, up 39% versus the rail equipment group. We believe the best is yet to come.
Our change in rating is primarily a function of near-term valuation.
While fleet sales have been cushioning the blow of weak retail sales, particularly for Ford and Chrysler in February, the Big Three have been promising to de-emphasize this side of the business and headline numbers could suffer as a result.
Arguably, Ford and GM are swapping incentives for higher ad spending and lower sticker prices. Longer term, we view this as a positive.
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