As there will be relatively large level of redemption of Australian dollar-denominated bonds coming up, talk of unwinding of yen-carry positions is likely to drag on the dollar.
The dollar remained firm against major currencies, supported by growing expectations of further interest rate hikes in the US.
We're seeing a little profit taking ahead of all the data. But as long as it comes in reasonably strong I'd say people will be looking for the Fed to keep raising rates in May and even beyond, and the dollar to start rising again.
Most people are still expecting another couple of rate hikes by the Fed. We'd need something like a really bad jobs report on Friday to change those expectations and drive the dollar down much further.
Sentiment on the dollar has not improved yet and its rise will be short-lived as it was driven by technical trade.
As long as rates stay so low in Japan the outflows by Japanese investors will persist. I think we'll see the dollar head back to 120 yen early next year.
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