We're likely to get some strong inflation data and that's going to keep the dollar going up for now. The yen will probably bear the brunt of the advance.

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It seems the market has moved into a new range trading environment, but there are further upside risks for the euro/dollar.

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The real question here is we don't know how large that impact is yet -- so this is a big source of uncertainty for the Fed and that does give them good cause to take a pause in their measured pace of tightening.

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It also faces interesting tests from U.S. inflation data this week from which we expect strong readings. But the focus is on the adverse U.S. funding situation and it is becoming increasingly hard for the dollar to maintain its value as the current account deficit expands.

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