I don't think there's much chance of getting to the worst case. It would damage the Iranians as much as anyone else.
At last the IEA is doing something useful apart from the collection of statistics. Better late than never.
Going by the cost of finding and developing oil today, there is no reason why the long-term price should be at $50-plus.
Frankly, we couldn't cope with the loss of Iranian oil.
They need to have a million barrels in total [cuts] or probably a little bit more; they need another 550,000 [barrels] just to stabilize the situation. This is damage limitation.
In the wet-barrel market - the real barrels that are stored and traded - there is no shortage of oil. But the paper barrels - the futures market - react like a lightning rod in a volatile market. That's their role.
Prices should be below $60 really or heading downwards .... but we have Iran and we have the Nigerian problems.
If Iraq goes through with this it could push prices back to $35-$37 for Brent in which case the U.S. might have to step in and release more of their strategic reserves.
It's a PR exercise to prove to the consumer that OPEC actually likes them. It's not going to help the market at all.
Copyright © 2024 Electric Goat Media. All Rights Reserved.