The economy could get back to an above trend rate this quarter, and that is what will matter to monetary policy makers.
What I think this means is that the Fed waited maybe for the stock market to go up a little and then cut rates and effectively reinforced the price action. Therefore it set a bottom on stocks, but it's definitely a very good move I think for the Fed.
The economy is doing fine and the labor market is on the mend.
While consumers are forking over a lot of money on gasoline, they continue to spend elsewhere, ... This tells us that job and income prospects are better than what is commonly understood.
The Fed is toward the end of its rate hikes. Equities and bonds got a bid because the Fed talked about maybe finishing its tightening.
The retail sales figures were really soft, much softer than expected.
Already in December, the vehicle sales data seemed to be regaining traction.
It's just adding to the notion that the Fed is on the cusp of an imminent and extended pause. It's proving what everybody was thinking -- the I-told-you-so crowd -- that oil is going to weaken things.
People are telling you they are still somewhat optimistic about the future, but the current environment is lousy.
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