Initially we turned a little lower after the auction results, but in the end we turned a little higher. It just seems as if the market has been able to recover partially after the losses of the last two days.
That just adds to everything that's going on Friday, so we're just stuck following oil and stocks until then.
The story of the week has been the inverted yield curve. It's tough to read too much into the inversion. We may be more firmly inverted tomorrow after the psychological factor sets in. We can have an inverted curve and have it not lead to a recession. It depends on how much the curve becomes inverted and how long it remains there until we can talk about a recession.
Over the short term Treasuries yields will head higher and prices lower based on the fact that economic damage from this hurricane is not as great as the worst fears had priced in.
Yes, the market developed a fear that employment would be stronger than it turned out to be, but it was still a pretty solid number, above economists' consensus forecast, so in general you're looking at recent economic numbers that have bond traders a little bit concerned.
There's a remarkable respect for the Federal Reserve and their ability to fight inflation, and because of that it's going to be difficult to see any major near-term rise in long-term rates.
The economic data were mixed, but then we got some pre-weekend short-covering and maybe some minor month-end buying.
The market is in a range trade and that situation is only getting more pronounced as we near the end of the year.
It was a little stronger than expected, but the sentiment data really hasn't been a major issue here. We're really still reacting to the payroll data.
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