We believe the 'back-end loaded' nature of December will be particularly pronounced this year.
Wal-Mart was rightly cautious with its outlook. Their first-quarter sales barely met the lower end of their 2 to 4 percent guidance.
Wal-Mart is a litmus test for the economy with respect to consumer spending. One thing I'll be interested in hearing about is the sales outlook, and especially whether or not deflation is a concern.
Target's increased emphasis on providing consumers with trend-right merchandise has strengthened the retail chain's presence as a destination for apparel.
Penney offered a benign set of comments about Eckerd. While its department stores are doing a little better, Eckerd is deteriorating. The speculation is that Penney's first choice is to sell its drugstore business.
Target's business has evolved to a point where I believe their core customer is as comfortable buying an outfit as they are a basic necessity like soap and toothpaste, and that is really the ultimate goal of everyone in that industry. It certainly appears to be an even sharper focus of Wal-Mart at this point, given how Target has outperformed Wal-Mart over the past two years.
What should be considered here is that the first quarter is off to a very strong start.
The specialty retailers have outperformed the mass merchandise chains this time, ... The question for me is, 'Could spending on the discretionary group finally be picking up?'
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