Average earnings growth was far softer than anticipated. It remained at 3.5% ... and is well below the 4.5% rate that the Bank of England has in the past considered compatible with its inflation forecast.
Euro-zone data flow this morning will encourage further hawkish rhetoric from the ECB.
This ... will boost hopes that activity in the first half of 2006 will remain robust. It will also increase talk of the Fed raising rates again in May, to 5%.
We're probably going to get two members who go for a cut. The data isn't pointing in one direction enough for the rest of the committee to go with them just yet.
Today's data is very weak, which adds to our concern about the prospects for consumer activity and the housing market in the months ahead.
A 'no change' outcome looks virtually certain.
Inflationary pressures are gradually easing, which should offer scope for interest rate cuts, but near-term relative economic strength has led us to pencil in the first cut coming in May rather than in the first quarter.
Hurricane insurance payouts will not recur, we expect the deficit to narrow sharply again in Q4 2005. Therefore the negative impact on sterling from today's release should be short-lived.
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