I agree that growth in production capacity this year will be a bit higher than demand growth. Still, the IEA always tends to be over-optimistic in terms of non-OPEC supply growth.
Four refineries may come back in the next two or three weeks. For another three or four refineries at least, we will probably have to wait for more than a month. We have seen some efforts by the U.S. government telling people not to buy gasoline if they don't need it, to conserve energy.
I think people are still looking to get into commodities and it is surprising as many fund managers believe we are close to the point where the economy is going to be harmed.
The attacks are a concern given Nigeria's importance as an oil-producing nation. It's a factor that will keep prices supported.
It's been a very warm winter in the U.S., so prices are pressed to fall as inventories build and demand slows down. I agree that growth in production capacity this year will be a bit higher than demand growth.
Oil demand in 2006 is going to grow quite strongly. There's very little spare capacity to deal with supply shocks. The market is still concerned that if we lose Iran, we're going to be in real trouble.
The relatively high inventory levels are providing some cushion to the market, but of course demand is rising in the U.S.. We are in a more comfortable situation than a few months ago, but the structural problems this market has haven't gone away.
I don't think the party is over. You still have positive demand and supply constraints.
After the sharp rise in gasoline prices, we believe that crude and transportation fuel prices will remain at historically high levels for a prolonged period of time, reflecting a tighter global balance.
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