Once the market realizes there is no real threat of an immediate conflict, the market will calm down and we will see oil prices back in the $50s or $60s per barrel. This is highly political.
Today's labor report could not have been more disheartening to those who thought the Fed had ended its monetary tightening. There is no possibility for the Fed to stop at the current 4.5 percent.
There are lots of indicators that show that the economy has accelerated considerably in the first quarter.
This doesn't mean that it will remain so strong in the next couple of quarters, but the Federal Reserve cannot sit down and look and wait, because whatever they do today, it takes effect in six to 12 months.
I think we're going to see a rate increase at the end of March and another one at the end of May to bring us up to 5 percent. Then I think the Federal Reserve will step back for a while to smell the roses.
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