Last week, chain-store sales came in pretty strong. But if you stripped out gasoline sales from Wal-Mart and Costco it really showed us that consumer spending had started to weaken on a fundamental level.

The consumer has finally been shaken. If folks are unsure what the future is looking like over the next few months, they tend to hunker down and sit on cash, and that's not a good start to the holiday shopping season.

There is still a lot of momentum left in the job market.