Right now, Microsoft is very interested in gaining market share. In order to do that, they need to take advantage of the fact that their console is out before the PS3 launches.

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Consumers are more likely to buy a second television or DVD player for the bedroom or perhaps a second MP3 player for the gym bag.

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We're looking at probably in the neighborhood of just under 150 million units over the next five years.

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Set-top boxes may not have the coolness factor of MP3 players or digital televisions. But growth is steady, and key developments like MPEG-4 and IPTV make this a particularly important period in the market.

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By the end of the year, manufacturers will launch dual-format players and holdout studios will announce support for both standards.

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With the market for Portable Media Player (PMP) semiconductors essentially doubling to $6.4 billion in 2009, the stakes in the portable video-processing market are high.

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This could be a giant bluff. The record labels are renegotiating with Apple this year. They may be looking to strengthen their position.

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