If spending numbers looked like sentiment numbers, we'd be back in recession, ... The good news is that consumers are complaining, but they're spending.

So the stock market could have a negative wealth effect and weigh on capital spending, but a sharp decline in long-term interest rates would be an important counterweight.

What it means is that with the benefit of hindsight, the late '90s never happened.

You're supposed to see recovery signs and they really are right on cue.

I just don't see any upside surprise in terms of a second half recovery.

First the cash market went up, reflecting the reality of a very tight supply-demand situation. Then the futures went up, making the case this was an enduring change in energy prices.

Now you should expect facts on the ground to change as energy production and conservation come to the fore.

Faltering U.S. new home sales, reflecting shrinking housing affordability, call into question the notion of another year above-trend growth for U.S. consumer spending and real gross domestic product.