The biggest mistake of economists over the past 20 years ... We've consistently underestimated growth.
It is important to look at what consumers are doing, not what they are saying.
It will take longer for Louisiana and Mississippi to recover from the storm than Florida last year, ... Resource- and agriculture-reliant areas just don't do as well.
It's somewhat surprising how resilient the economy has been, despite higher energy prices.
Flood damage does not tend to be as insured. The lack of insurance is likely to cause the recovery to be delayed.
It (consumer sentiment) was a little higher than expected, but the stock market has come back, gasoline prices have come down, and the weather has been beautiful and that has to affect consumers somewhat.
So even if tomorrow's ISM report does not show anywhere near the weakness the Chicago report does, we could still see some follow through in the next month's numbers.
The relief money is coming in much faster than it has for any other natural disaster that I can remember. That should help minimize some of the hit on consumer spending.
A very high proportion of that job growth is occurring in high-paying professions. This is a demand-driven market and demand vastly exceeds supply.
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