On the other hand, it's possible the first quarter's growth was just a one-time inventory rebound and that we're now stuck in a range of 1.5-to-2 percent growth. If that continues, it will be much like the early 90s.
The difference with this disaster is that we have an energy shock.
It was a toast, not a roast.
He may not be as heavy-handed with policy decisions. The outcomes of the meetings may be more democratic, at least for a time.
The Committee continues to see the removal of accommodation as the focus of policy and has given no indication that it is close to the end of that process.
When the chairman made his recommendation at the start of the go-round, the game was up, it was over. Everybody knew what the chairman would be in favor of.
I expect the economy to rebound to above-trend growth. We just hit a soft spot in the second quarter, ... If it turns out that the economy continues to grow below trend ... if the data continue to be as weak as they have been in the past three months, with a sufficient rise in the unemployment rate, you can't rule [a rate cut] out.
The balance of aggregate demand and sustainable supply today and the distinct possibility that labor and product markets will tighten further suggest an unacceptable risk of overheating and, therefore, higher inflation in the future.
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