It is likely to be the first of many attacks.

You have to believe at this point that the new Iranian president is willing to use oil as a weapon, if only for a symbolic week or two to create a crisis, exact some concessions from the West and then defuse the situation.

The Iran affair will come to the fore as a result of the IAEA meeting. We could be squarely on the road to curtailed Iranian oil production as a result, pushing prices up.

I think we're in the process of nearing a bottom.

With winter speeding by, there isn't much time left to generate significant demand. Unless several weeks of sustained cold materialize over the next two months or so, supply should be more than adequate. This could weigh heavily on prices if this condition persists into the restocking season after April 1st.

You can never underestimate the potential for OPEC to do the wrong thing and push prices with their rhetoric or actions.

OPEC would like to see lower prices and is doing what it can. The OPEC ministers left open the prospect of a rollback in quotas at the March meeting.

With distillate stocks at a 14 million-barrel surplus, the forecast for colder temperatures isn't providing much support. It is too little, too late.