The 'inside the beltway' gang is looking for various kinds of signals about who's doing well and who's not doing well.
Given that the economy is doing pretty well, he really is not getting any credit for it. That's because we're at war. The public rewards peace, prosperity and (political) moderation. Right now he's got one of those things going for him.
Candidates are strategic about their decision to run. I'm sure there are people in the city of Murfreesboro, as vibrant as it is, who care about politics and would like to be mayor. They've just decided this isn't the right time to run.
The State of the Union address obviously provides him the chance to get the attention of the American public. But it is not going to undo the structural problem he faces. You have a situation in Iraq that is not going to get better in the short term. ... I see him not having a really big change in popularity.
It just keeps Bush further on the defensive. He continues playing defense rather than offense, and he can't gain traction on anything.
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