Most of these supply situations are fraught with some kind of peril.
My sense is there's going be another price spike.
I thought the Middle Eastern part [of President Bush's State of the Union speech] was grossly exaggerated, given the percentage they supply. It's hard to pick out one part of the world as being more unstable than another part, especially if you're projecting 20, 25 years out.
SPR volumes are generous and the quality looks fine, so the real issue for refiners is how that prospective purchase shapes up against alternatives in terms of certainty, price and availability.
Production in the Gulf has yet to recover and the trouble in Nigeria shows no signs of easing. We are missing about 1 million barrels of output.
This is illusory to me. I don't think this means anything.
And if there's real damage, then we're really kind of in the dumps here for awhile.
The lack of spare capacity has made us vulnerable to any threat to supply over the last few years. It's important to keep in mind that the biggest single loss of oil output recently was in the Gulf of Mexico.
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