I don't think there's any cliff you suddenly walk off. I'm not going to worry about a recession until we get up to $100 a barrel.

Common sense says consumers have to stop spending money at some point. But consumers haven't shown much common sense lately, despite griping about gas prices.

Usually coming out of a recession, you get a real spurt in productivity, which we got, but now things are settling down to what by historical standards are still very strong gains in productivity.

My guess is things will cool abruptly; the question is do they do it by June 29.

Fundamentally, money you spend at the gas pump is money you don't have to spend at the mall.

Because they've got the employment, the people go there. It's a virtuous circle. It works in the right direction.

It is rather encouraging that the Fed is pointing toward a pause after the May hike. A lot of us were getting concerned that the hikes would continue into June and August. And one of the problems is that what the Fed does now affects the economy a year from now.

The second quarter is shaping up to be stronger than expected.

The economy is living with it, and corporations are turning in strong profits despite high energy costs. People forget that energy isn't as big a part of the economy as it was 25 years ago.