Today's manufacturing output figures were mediocre and disappointing overall.
Although earlier estimates have been revised up slightly, the new figures confirm that the sector was in technical recession in the first half of 2005. In spite of the minimal increase in output seen in July, the sector is persistently failing to establish a sustainable recovery.
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There is still a distinct danger of renewed recession in manufacturing.
The slowdown in UK GDP growth is mainly being driven by sharply lower growth in household consumption, as the cooling housing market and the higher personal debt burden dampen spending.
We also believe that we will need further interest rate cuts in the near future.
It has become clear that Gordon Brown's budget forecasts are no longer in the realms of possibility.
Alleviating the plight of manufacturing, and countering the downward pressures on the economy, are now key priorities.
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