We are about to move into a new phase when Russian state-controlled energy companies are opened for investment with cooperative foreign firms. It makes sense to have someone with international experience ? either corporate or political ? leading that process at the head of those companies.

The two groups are clearly vying for a dominant position in energy. The only thing we are sure of is that ultimately a state company will be dominant.

Of itself, it won't have an effect on the share price.

In practice, we are not expected to see much volume in the following two weeks.

Russia's position is very tight.

Russia is saying you can't have your cake and eat it. If you're in the Russian sphere of influence, you get cheap energy. If you aren't, you don't.

When they make that adjustment, it should lead to one-off demand of around $8 billion from [large mutual] funds. That's one of the drivers of the share price.

A safe number is probably double that (72 billion barrel) figure. But it's not impossible it's three times as high.

Russia is risking losing credibility as a reliable energy supplier by cutting off supplies to an external customer on the same day it takes over as leader of the G-8.