Having him back in Ecuador will cause a lot of noise, but it will not destabilize the government.

He wants to become the number one opponent of a government that is already weak. This was the only path he could take if he did not want to die politically.

This government is going to survive. But it will be weak.

At this moment, the government has lost control of the country and must retake control. If it doesn't attack the fundamental problems, it would be a catastrophe.