Despite the sea of bad news lately in sector-wide demand, we see key progress at Oracle with its long-troubled 11i applications suite.

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In general, they tend to get (up to) one-and-a-half percent of traffic, so you sign up a couple billion-dollar exchanges and you are in good shape.

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We're hearing that database demand may be experiencing some negative pressure from the bursting of the Internet valuation bubble this year and its influence on database demand from so-called dot.com businesses. At the low end of the market, this tends to influence unit sales more than revenues, but it is a factor.

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In 1998-99, enterprise software companies were actually harmed by shift to Internet computing because they didn't have products to offer in that category. They are now just beginning to enjoy the product cycle in Internet-architected software. In addition, there is a broad shift to e-business throughout the economy and a heightened appreciation of the value of e-commerce.

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In many ways, it's like splitting hairs between the gold and silver medalists when the bronze medalist is miles behind. The market is consolidating into the hands of the largest few.

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That's what everyone is wondering. In this environment they're probably not going to aim too high, leave well enough alone and have a modest target.

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They have yet to achieve needed traction there.

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They are participating in yet another massive business-to-business exchange as the technology provider, and investors love it.

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Overall, we are pretty optimistic. We think the September and December quarters will be good ones for the enterprise software providers. The business software cycle is on the rise, rebounding nicely from the Y2K problem of last year and the successful transition from client-server architecture to Internet architecture software.

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