Traders figured out that the odds of the hurricane having a major impact are quite low.
The Iran situation is tense but it doesn't look like there will be any immediate action taken. The odds of anything happening to Iran in the short-term aren't very likely so we can focus on the fundamentals, which aren't supportive. Inventories are extraordinarily high.
If you want to protect yourself from it, get a high-mileage car. Volatility is always an issue. It's just a part of the environment.
It doesn't mean people will stop driving or demand goes down. But demand slows down.
More and more, drivers ask about mileage. A few years ago, nobody cared.
The drop in crude was a surprise and was a little supportive to prices, but the market was completely overwhelmed by the build in products. It's unusual at this time of year to see distillate fuels rise.
When you got over $3, you did see behavior change. That does seem to be the magic number, $3 to $3.50.
Gasoline was already so hammered. You reach a point where you have already accounted for any inventory change and that's where we are.
If you're going to see that $3 to $3.50, you're going to see it between May 1 and June 15. After that, you probably won't. That's the usual pattern.
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