We believe this update is a combination of management's typical conservatism and sales sluggishness from the unusually warm weather.

The low energy prices are more beneficial than any tax break, particularly for discount shoppers.

Consumers were not in the holiday spirit up until the last week of the holiday season, when there was a mad rush for the store. And the big unknown is the result of that game of chicken, where shoppers waited until the last minute to get the best bargains and retailers held off.

While Kohl's is expected to steal market share from Mervyn's, it should be limited to 1 to 2 percent of total division shares.

Wal-Mart's cautious comments are warranted. Even though its problems are not company-specific, it does bode badly for the profits and sales across the retail chain in the back half of the year.

Wal-Mart continues to show strong momentum and operating performance. Its food and apparel sales did well, which fits in with our thesis that Wal-Mart is really taking on the supermarkets. By adding new apparel name brands like Levi's, I think it's in a position to see tremendous success in apparel too.

I think it all comes down to Wal-Mart's aggressive advertising campaign. They are being much louder with their campaign, and I think they've done a good job of stealing the 'early-bird' holiday shoppers.

Kohl's is having a major disconnect with its customers. The company's inventory growth is outpacing sales and I think their problems will continue into the fourth quarter and even the first quarter next year.

Wal-Mart has made it very clear that the prospects for this holiday are much stronger than the conventional wisdom would have had it.