The oil system, both upstream and downstream, is being run close to sustainable limits and the tensions created by the absence of slack are now the key driver of prices.
Crude oil was the one thing not in short supply. What the U.S. lacks is oil products, especially gasoline, and it lacks the spare capacity to refine more crude.
The loss in potential gasoline output from these plants alone is expected to be of the order of 600,000 barrels a day.
The United States is facing a major gasoline crisis and is starting from a nearly empty tank.
Recent hurricane damage in the U.S. has impacted natural gas more than any other energy market.
Sooner or later the seriousness of the situation for U.S. product supply will begin to show in the weekly U.S. data releases, though it may still be too early for that today.
It is now appropriate to talk of a major energy crisis after Hurricane Katrina pushed U.S. energy markets beyond the edge. The impact of Katrina has been to produce a significant discontinuity.
The release of strategic reserves contains a very large component of unneeded crude oil and does little to directly impact on the actual supply gap of U.S. oil products.
Keeping crude oil below $70 is all very well, but in political terms it is a useless achievement if you cannot also keep gasoline below $100. There is an energy crisis, and it is likely to get worse before it gets better.
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