Business appears increasingly concerned that further weakness is in prospect. The Reserve Bank is very much on hold, weighing the higher inflation reality against the prospect of further slowing in domestic demand and a mild deterioration in the labor market.

For 2001, we expect [Japanese] growth of marginally less than 1 percent.

This says to me that interest rates are firmly on hold. This economy is slowing down and there may be a bit more weakness to come.

The near-term inflation outlook will cause the Reserve Bank some short term concern.

Oil-sensitive sectors continue to weaken, led down by retailing, wholesaling and transport.

There was continuing strength in mining, equipment manufacturing, nonresidential construction and utilities, ... Against that, residential construction, parts of agriculture and both wholesale and retail report poor and falling business conditions.

The story is one of continuing boom conditions in mining and very strong nonresidential construction activity, ... The Reserve Bank is still very much on hold, watching both the inflation outlook and domestic demand.

The deterioration in agribusiness contrasts starkly with the ongoing strength in the non-farm business sector as a whole.

Overall, we still see the official cash rate being increased by around 1.25 percent in total, bring the rate back to around 5.5 percent by mid/early 2003.