Arroyo has been good for the economy. There's a bit of, 'What doesn't kill you makes you stronger,' in the Philippines.

What they're likely to do is take away the mild and gradual language from the statement.

We think the case is building for Asia to become a more independent source of growth for the global economy.

We believe the noise will remain constant, but the signal/noise ratio is clearly falling, as the macro economy continues to enter a recovery phase.

The exchange rate is again under the spotlight as a wave of protectionist rhetoric rushed through the U.S. against China's large trade surplus and its undervalued currency.

Arroyo continues to outmaneuver her political opposition. The various opposition factions were unable to gain any momentum.

It's looking more and more that she's able to deal with these kind of threats so over time the market will realize that and see the political risk is less and less. All this can lead to a stronger currency.

Over the next six months, we believe there will likely be confirmation that this recession is deeper than that of 1998.