Intel gave us a good preview of the quarter, but oil suffocated the positive news.
Stocks that have minimum exposure to higher interest rates.
If the Fed is right and the economy continues to expand, we'll see that happen and see it reflected in the earnings for the second half.
There are a combination of forces which could be positive, on net. The market's been held hostage by the election and Iraq, and those may at least temporarily fade as preoccupations if better economic news takes hold.
The services sector is showing some inflationary pressure, and wages are starting to climb.
We're entering a seasonal period now, pre-Thanksgiving, pre-December holidays, where we often see a stock advance.
The third quarter earnings have been fairly well received and I think there will be anticipation that fourth-quarter earnings could be better than expected.
That's what's probably bringing the market around. Low interest rates and sustained growth will bring estimates that corporate earnings over the coming year could very well be up 8 or 9 percent. That will sustain the market for the coming months, until year-end.
We see the Fed easing as a flu shot that will help prevent recession in 1999, but fixing the global problems that underlie the markets' malaise will require major surgery. So basically, I think the market sees through this as a temporary boost, but there are fundamental problems that aren't yet resolved.
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